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Like in previous eras, current politicized discussions of crime ignore or distort crime data to intensify public fear, heighten racial tension, and undermine criminal justice reforms that promote long-term, sustainable public safety. The best way to protect against such attempts that hijack public discussions of crime and public safety is to be informed about how discussions of crime statistics can be manipulated for political gain.

The Thurgood Marshall Institute’s latest report The Truth About Crime Statistics: Avoiding Distortions and Improving Public Safety examines three false narratives presented by politicians and the media to explain the 2020 nationwide increase in homicides: the expansion of bail reform, practices of progressive prosecutors, and attempts to defund the police. Our analysis reveals that the empirical data contradicts these narratives. Our data suggests that pandemic-induced instability and inequality are the primary drivers of recent increases in homicides.’

Our research findings are:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic drove the 2020 homicide spike, but local factors influenced whether and how quickly a city bounced back in 2021.
  • “Tough-on-crime” practices (e.g., law-and-order prosecutors, absence of bail reform, and increased police budgets) did not prevent cities from experiencing a homicide spike in 2020.
  • Social and economic instability and heightened inequalities generated by the COVID-19 pandemic best explain the recent increases in homicides.
  • Pandemic-induced economic instability is associated with increases in homicides.
  • Pre-pandemic economic inequality is associated with increases in homicides.
  • Pre-pandemic evictions are associated with increases in homicides.

Download the PDF here.

Read the LDF report page here.